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the polls have really tighten add lot. the last debate, the first debate with romney and obama really upended the opportunities for us in ohio. so you're seeing that. they're on the offense and it's interesti interesting. you u saw the obama campaign announce that clinton and springsteen are going to be campaigning for them in ohio. to me that seems they have to pull out the big guns now to not seat any ground. >> i mean governor romney, this is his fourth day in a row in ohio. i think both campaigns have been pretty clear how important the buckeye state is. i'll ask is there a path to 270 for you guys without ohio? >> look. i don't think they've written ohio out or excuse me off. it's still their path to 270. that's why they're there. because there's excitement on the ground there. you're seeing vol -- >> can you win the presidency without ohio? >> yes. i believe so. i've not done the private polling. look what they're doing. they wouldn't be there if this wasn't a winnable state for them. one of the things you should loo
the polls have really tighten add lot. the last debate, the first debate with romney and obama really upended the opportunities for us in ohio. so you're seeing that. they're on the offense and it's interesti interesting. you u saw the obama campaign announce that clinton and springsteen are going to be campaigning for them in ohio. to me that seems they have to pull out the big guns now to not seat any ground. >> i mean governor romney, this is his fourth day in a row in ohio. i think...
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earlier we talked about the polls and mitt romney on the move. mitt romney spent 90 minutes on the stage lying about everything he claimed to stand for prior to the debate. he lied about his tax plan, he lied about his health care plan, he lied about medicare and medicaid and social security, he lied about deregulation, he lied about jobs, he lied about education. think about this. after campaigning for 18 months on a tax plan for the job creators there that will reduce their taxes 20% on personal income, cut capital gains taxes and business taxes, romney stood on stage with president obama and denied all of that. he told the american people that he really didn't have a plan, which my friends, is completely a 180. after saying it, every campaign stop for 18 months that he would repeal obama care on day one, he stood before the american people and said his plan would take care of preexisting conditions. after the debate, his campaign admitted it would not. romney says his health care plan, which passed in massachusetts, would be good for states. b
earlier we talked about the polls and mitt romney on the move. mitt romney spent 90 minutes on the stage lying about everything he claimed to stand for prior to the debate. he lied about his tax plan, he lied about his health care plan, he lied about medicare and medicaid and social security, he lied about deregulation, he lied about jobs, he lied about education. think about this. after campaigning for 18 months on a tax plan for the job creators there that will reduce their taxes 20% on...
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Oct 7, 2012
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gallup's daily tracking poll shows the president with a three-point lead over mitt romney. that poll includes responses given before and after the debate. take a look at this. gallup's job approval poll taken entirely after the debate. 48% say they approve of the job the president's doing while 46% disapprove. before the debate, gallup had the president's approval rating at 54%. 42% disapproval. more on these stories throughout the next hour. president obama and his campaign might have broken a fundraising record last month, but he's still in fundraising mode, as i mentioned a few moments ago. president obama will land in los angeles where he will be attending a star-studded concert this afternoon followed by a $25,000 a plate dinner tonight. he'll end the evening at a private event with former president bill clinton and a dozen of his top donors. it's the latest in a series of trips to tinsel town to raise money. joining me now is our nbc white house correspondent. we've been talking about it all weekend. president obama's record setting fundraising total for last month. $
gallup's daily tracking poll shows the president with a three-point lead over mitt romney. that poll includes responses given before and after the debate. take a look at this. gallup's job approval poll taken entirely after the debate. 48% say they approve of the job the president's doing while 46% disapprove. before the debate, gallup had the president's approval rating at 54%. 42% disapproval. more on these stories throughout the next hour. president obama and his campaign might have broken a...
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in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that poll in iowa shows a gain for mr. obama, a 5-point gain. in florida, the same poll shows a 4-point swing for romney. he's up by 2 points. so the major fall or minor lift, however, you rattle the number lose, as the overall national polling shifts and the swing state races shift with them, the state where the romney campaign is hoping for the biggest shift of all is in ohio. in modern political history, ohio has been the path to the presidency for republican candidates. if republican candidates win ohio, they win the white house. if mitt romney doesn't win ohio,
in colorado, in one right-leaning poll romney is now up by 3 points. the same showed him losing by 5 before the debate. now he's up by 3. in virginia, the president is ahead by 3 in virginia. that same poll had the president's lead at 5 points before the debate. that shows the president's lead shrinking. in michigan, it's now barack obama by just 3 points. the president had led by 10 last month. now it's down to 3. in ohio today, a poll on the right gives the president an edge of 2 points. that...
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he's 49 and obama 47 in the polls. in ohio, 48/47, romney. a new cnn poll has obama ahead. all those polls within the margin of error is close. romney's family reportedly won a fight with campaign handlers leading to a candidate telling more personal stories this week. tuesday night he spoke of inadvertently crashing a party and meeting a former navy seal. >> i just learned a few days ago that he was one of the two former navy seals killed in ben ghazi and it broke my heart. >> we've got some work to do. we've got an election to win. >> reporter: the president was also in ohio, his 17th rally there, touting new jobs numbers. >> this past friday we found out the employment rate had fallen from 10% to -- the lowest number since i took office. >> reporter: the disappointment, bill clinton said, to republicans who fought jobs plans. >> you've got to feel some sympathy with them because they worked so hard to keep unemployment above 8% and they got above two months of getting the job done. it almost makes you want to cry for the disappointment that they face. it really broke the
he's 49 and obama 47 in the polls. in ohio, 48/47, romney. a new cnn poll has obama ahead. all those polls within the margin of error is close. romney's family reportedly won a fight with campaign handlers leading to a candidate telling more personal stories this week. tuesday night he spoke of inadvertently crashing a party and meeting a former navy seal. >> i just learned a few days ago that he was one of the two former navy seals killed in ben ghazi and it broke my heart. >>...
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romney had surged in the tracking poll. the two candidates were actually tied in the three days immediately after the debate, but the president seems to have wiped out romney's gains in the gallup poll. joining me right now are howard fineman, editorial director of the "huffington post," and the honorable michael nutter, mayor of philadelphia and presidential surrogate in this tough campaign. gentlemen, thank you for joining us. always go to the elected official first. mr. mayor, what needs to be done right now to right this ship, to get obama back on a winning course? >> well, the president is on a winning course and as you laid out earlier, chris, with all the things that mitt romney either lied about or denied about -- what we call that in philadelphia is just lying, denying, and alibiing. and if that's what you're going to spend your time doing and focus on style, then you'll have a pretty decent night. president obama is focused on substance. let me give you three quick numbers here, chris, which i think ultimately is
romney had surged in the tracking poll. the two candidates were actually tied in the three days immediately after the debate, but the president seems to have wiped out romney's gains in the gallup poll. joining me right now are howard fineman, editorial director of the "huffington post," and the honorable michael nutter, mayor of philadelphia and presidential surrogate in this tough campaign. gentlemen, thank you for joining us. always go to the elected official first. mr. mayor, what...
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plus, where will romney be when the results of those polls begin to come in. will he be in coin flip races in places like ohio, iowa and wisconsin? where will the president's number be? still sitting at 49 or 50 or have fallen down to 47, 48? national tracks are one thing. battleground states are another. tuesday, romney stumps virginia, then ohio with chris christie in cuyahoga falls. in three straight rallies in florida, he recounted his memories of a 14-year-old boy, david, that he befriended with leukemia. >> i sat down next to him and he said what happens next? and i spoke with him about what i believe happens next. clear eyes, full heart, can't lose. david can't lose. i love the greatness of the soul of the american people. >> david's parents, members of romney's congregation, spoke at the convention. it's one of those things that you a lot of people have been saying romney needs to do. his sons have been doing it. ann's been doing it, but now, mitt romney himself starting to incorporate some of the personal stories in some of the things he did as head o
plus, where will romney be when the results of those polls begin to come in. will he be in coin flip races in places like ohio, iowa and wisconsin? where will the president's number be? still sitting at 49 or 50 or have fallen down to 47, 48? national tracks are one thing. battleground states are another. tuesday, romney stumps virginia, then ohio with chris christie in cuyahoga falls. in three straight rallies in florida, he recounted his memories of a 14-year-old boy, david, that he...
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three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers. in fact, we're just looking at the numbers from last night, which we're adding to our rolling average which we will report out at 1:00 today at gallup.com. our view of the race is that romney definitely got a significant boost on thursday and friday of last week. and by the way, that's probably what was picked up for the most part in that pew poll that was discussed. >> okay. >> but when we monitor our data from saturday and sunday, and now just looking at the numbers from last night, obama is picking back up again. so, we think that that continuation of a huge move by romney is not in the data. so, overall, we
three days of polling after the debate, take a look, romney polling even with the president, erasing a five-point deficit. but then friday's strong jobs report could turn that around. i'm joined now by gallup poll editor in chief frank newport. frank, good to see you. good morning. >> good morning! >> okay, so, let me know what you think. how's the race shaping up? how much have we seen? how much have you been able to poll up to this point? >> boy, we're studying the numbers....
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poll numbers improving. >> they're looking very good. i feel very good. >> reporter: after the debate, romney is within two points of the president. and tomorrow, both candidates head to ohio, battleground ohio, where early voting is already under way. tomorrow is the last day to register to vote there. veronica? >> thank you. mitt romney will deliver that major policy speech before noon eastern, but the obama campaign is issuing a preemptive strike with this new tv ad criticizing the republican candidate's past foreign policy faux pas. take a look. >> reckless. amateurish. that's what news media and fellow republicans called mitt romney's gaffe-filled july tour of england, israel, and poland, when our u.s. diplomats were attacked in libya, "the new york times" said romney's response showed an extraordinary lack of presidential character. >> the obama campaign said this will be romney's seventh speech on foreign policy. >>> venezuelan president hugo chavez gets to keep his job for another seven years, but his re-election came in the slim
poll numbers improving. >> they're looking very good. i feel very good. >> reporter: after the debate, romney is within two points of the president. and tomorrow, both candidates head to ohio, battleground ohio, where early voting is already under way. tomorrow is the last day to register to vote there. veronica? >> thank you. mitt romney will deliver that major policy speech before noon eastern, but the obama campaign is issuing a preemptive strike with this new tv ad...
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let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost always happens the challenger goes up for a while in the polls but then goes back down. he think it would have much effect on the election and i tend to agree with him. >> that is if the candidate, if the president of the united states, comes back with a different game plan. what do you think he needs to do in the next debate he didn't do in the first debate? >> well, the bottom line is, i think that he is a fighter. i think he will come to the conclusion that he let romney get away with a little too much trying to be very presidential, and i don't think you'll see the same thing in the next debate. >> let's talk a
let me ask you about the latest polls because the pew poll now shows mitt romney ahead for the first time. these things could bounce around a little bit but certainly shows he has gained some advantage after that debate. >> well, i thought there was an interesting column by a fellow named nate silver 538 in "the new york times" plot s out how the elections have gone in the past. almost always when an incumbent president in the debate and a challenger does well which almost...
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the latest polls, reuters has them tied. gallup has romney up by two. pew has him up by four. and we were talking about the polls in the balgtd ground states. it also now looks like according to other polls that pennsylvania and michigan may no longer be safe bets for the president. lynn. >> all right, thanks. last night on the rachel maddow show, nate silver talks about just how close the candidates are in the polls. >> the whole good month that obama had in september between the convention and the 47% tape, you're now seeing the race as close as it's been all year. i'm a little skeptical that it's actually tied based on the fact that obama still seems to on have a lead in the majority of swing state polls. but romney, who a week or two ago go looked like his campaign might be dead in the water, now is very, very close. maybe the debate was the october surprise, although it wouldn't be the first time that a challenger did really well in the first televised debate. >> every night rachel maddow takes on the biggest stories of the day. watch her at 9:00 eastern right here on msn
the latest polls, reuters has them tied. gallup has romney up by two. pew has him up by four. and we were talking about the polls in the balgtd ground states. it also now looks like according to other polls that pennsylvania and michigan may no longer be safe bets for the president. lynn. >> all right, thanks. last night on the rachel maddow show, nate silver talks about just how close the candidates are in the polls. >> the whole good month that obama had in september between the...
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just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that same shift in the battleground state polls? we'll have to see what happened what happens. >> this is the last day for voters to register to vote there, that's why they're both there. romney kicks off a two-day ohio journey, he'll be back in ohio again on friday. meanwhile the president holds an evening rally at ohio state university in columbus. by the way romney starts his day on a family farm in central iowa. another midwestern battleground state. paul ryan does his debate prep today in florida. the vice president signalled a new urgency to voters saying, quo
just last month in the same poll, romney trailed by eight points. driving romney surge, a spike in republican enthusiasm, more republicans made it through pew's likely voter screen than democrats. and a larger group of registered voters, the candidates are tied at 46. while it's unlikely returns on election day make it unlikely in this pew sample that romney has the upper hand. and looking inside the pew numbers, we're looking at an unlikely -- now romney leads by six, 50-44. will we see that...
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people on twitter critique each poll. you have a run of romney polls that are good for him. people perceive patterns and random noise all the time. at the end of the day, if you digest everything with a coke of whiskey, whatever you want, you have time to add more perspective. we have more important and dramatic days with shifts in the race. most of the time, especially in the summer, it adds up to nothing. it was the same story, day after day after day. >> it was important to look at the average of polls. i think it's what happens at five thirty eight. there are other polls. i think one of the things i have to be careful of as consumers of polls is you can't trust a single or individual poll. gallup is doing a tracking poll, it's a trend. if you look at gallup and pugh, they found conflicting results by a difference of six percentage points. you can't trust any single poll. you have to go to the average. >> are we doing no more now that we have more polling? is it the case we have a more accurate sense because of a larger body of data, we can average it out, sitting here 25
people on twitter critique each poll. you have a run of romney polls that are good for him. people perceive patterns and random noise all the time. at the end of the day, if you digest everything with a coke of whiskey, whatever you want, you have time to add more perspective. we have more important and dramatic days with shifts in the race. most of the time, especially in the summer, it adds up to nothing. it was the same story, day after day after day. >> it was important to look at the...
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mitt romney is leading in ten of the battleground states in politico's poll. trailing in the washington post political poll. what's your thought? does the governor think he can become the first republican to win without taking ohio? >> we're going to take ohio. the ground game that we put together there is exceedingly doing very, very well in terms of the number of contacts both on the phone and door to door. as you noted, he's been there quite a number of times. i think we continue to make up grounds. some of the polls have it tied. so i think in the final weeks we'll continue to make this about a clear choice in the election and governor romney will take ohio. >> take us into the back room for a second. without ohio you need to run the board here. what are your internals showing on that? how do you get florida and virginia? those are looking good? >> florida and virginia are looking good. nevada is looking great. colorado is looking great. iowa and new hampshire is looking very good as well. so i think, a, as i mentioned, i think we're going to take ohio. b,
mitt romney is leading in ten of the battleground states in politico's poll. trailing in the washington post political poll. what's your thought? does the governor think he can become the first republican to win without taking ohio? >> we're going to take ohio. the ground game that we put together there is exceedingly doing very, very well in terms of the number of contacts both on the phone and door to door. as you noted, he's been there quite a number of times. i think we continue to...
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. >> i hear the polls have romney up by 67 points today. i think hysteria is a good word and i like andrew sullivan as much as the next conservative -- not conservative pundit he claims to be. i do think -- you know, in politics you can never extrap plate from a given point. everything is trend lines one way or the other direction. that was a bad night for the president and anybody who wants him to win. but it's not the last point we're going to see on the graph here. we're going to see, you know, two more debates, we're going to see more speeches, may see oscar the grouch get involved, who knows. but so, you know, plenty of time. if mitt romney, you know, could survive three bad weeks after the 47% video, the president can survive a bad debate performance and after the next one, whatever happened in the first time, won't matter. he may not -- he may do worse, may do better but won't matter anymore after the next two debates. >> also, to your point about graphs there is a an interesting graph in t"the new york times" when incumbents win and
. >> i hear the polls have romney up by 67 points today. i think hysteria is a good word and i like andrew sullivan as much as the next conservative -- not conservative pundit he claims to be. i do think -- you know, in politics you can never extrap plate from a given point. everything is trend lines one way or the other direction. that was a bad night for the president and anybody who wants him to win. but it's not the last point we're going to see on the graph here. we're going to see,...
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it appears that in one poll, in the pew poll, mitt romney is up against the president and in the gallup seven-day tracking poll, the president is up 50 to 45, if i have mitt romney's number right in that poll. this race has been, is, and will continue to be until election day a very close race. and so either side can take heart in a poll that shows his or her candidate being on top but, remember, this race is basically tied. >> now, the vice presidential debate, the one and only one, will be be this thursday night and paul ryan, the republican vice presidential nominee, was questioning his weekend on what he was doing to prepare for the debate. here's his response. >> how you feeling about the debate? >> what debate? oh, yeah. i better get ready for that. >> you know, i better get started. you just reminded me. no, it's going well. >> what are you looking for in that debate, marge, on thursday night? >> well, first of all, paul ryan should focus on explaining the math. that's something he dismissed when asked about it on fox news about a week or two ago. >> right. >> so he should now fi
it appears that in one poll, in the pew poll, mitt romney is up against the president and in the gallup seven-day tracking poll, the president is up 50 to 45, if i have mitt romney's number right in that poll. this race has been, is, and will continue to be until election day a very close race. and so either side can take heart in a poll that shows his or her candidate being on top but, remember, this race is basically tied. >> now, the vice presidential debate, the one and only one, will...
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. >> hey, peter, according to that latest poll, romney down just a few points there behind president obama in ohio, inching closer by the day. what's different about the romney campaign strategy in the buckeye state right now versus that strategy maybe say two weeks ago? >> reporter: i think it's pretty clear that romney feels much more confident. he feels much more loose as he interacts with voters and delivers his stump speech. it's because of that debate performance about ten days or sore now. when we were on the trail for months, craig, it was very clear that people were here because they did not like president obama. increasingly they're here because they believe mitt romney is the guy that can beat him and lead this country. whether it's strategic or not, that's the biggest take away. stay technologically on the ground they're flooding ohio and other swing states with advertising, spending, restore our future. that's the primary super pac that has been supporting mitt romney from the start. there's some reporting today that they're now spending $14 million across nine swing sta
. >> hey, peter, according to that latest poll, romney down just a few points there behind president obama in ohio, inching closer by the day. what's different about the romney campaign strategy in the buckeye state right now versus that strategy maybe say two weeks ago? >> reporter: i think it's pretty clear that romney feels much more confident. he feels much more loose as he interacts with voters and delivers his stump speech. it's because of that debate performance about ten...
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we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points there in just over a week. in new hampshire a new wmur granite state poll showses in last nine day he's whittled the 15-point lead down to 6 points. national polls has romney edging ahead of barack obama for the first time this year. the question is, is this what happens naturally, or was this spurred by the debate? >> it doesn't happen naturally. it happens after an earthquake. >> really? >> there was a political earthquake last week, the likes of which i've never seen in american politics, where a shift happened that dramatically in one night. donny, you've seen t
we saw the pugh poll that shows romney up a great bit. now the real news begins, the state by state by state polls. >> four weeks away. can you believe it. >> we have a few to report on this morning. >> the election is coming. the fight for battleground states, less than four weeks until election day in ohio where there are 18 electoral votes up for grabs. a new cnn poll conducted after the debate shows the president leading by four points, 51-47. romney has gained four points...
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romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack obama with an edge of 4 points in ohio, which is just outside the margin of error. it's far less than the 9-point leads in the survey not long ago. i should say to democrats and obama supporters, i'm sorry if i unleashed those numbers on you with a mature content warning label. but my friend e.j. dionne will be with us later. he says, i was talking with an old friend who was one of the nonpartisan polling outfits. we were discussing the large shifts in some of the polls on the presidential election and the feedback he receives whenever he puts out new numbers that make one side or the other
romney up by 4 points in the pew poll. in the swing states, mr. romney leading in colorado by 4. mr. obama leading in pennsylvania by 2, the right poll showing a tie in nevada. the president up in new hampshire by 6 points. and really the one poll we waited on all day, the one poll that might matter more than any other single piece of data, the one piece we got today, president obama holding on to a 4-point lead in ohio. let's poll this one out. this is a cnn number from this afternoon. barack...
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today, romney had a one-point lead in the real clear politics poll and pundits throwing suggestions in the ring of what president obama needs to do next week at the debate. here's a view of the past and the future. >> i had a different reaction to that first debate than a lot of people did. i mean, i saw -- i thought, wow. here's old moderate mitt. where you been, boy? i missed you all these last two years. now, the problem with this deal is the deal was made by severe conservative mitt. that was how he described himself for two whole years. until three or four days before the debate they got together and said, hey man, this ship is sinking faster than the "titanic." just show up with a sunny face and say, i didn't say all that stuff i said the last two years. i don't have that tax plan i had for two years. you going to believe me or your lying eyes here? come on. what are you doing? and if i eve been the president, i might have said, i hate to get in the way of this. i miss you. >> wow. >> 66 years old, ladies and gentlemen. open heart surgery just a couple of years ago. >> he can sti
today, romney had a one-point lead in the real clear politics poll and pundits throwing suggestions in the ring of what president obama needs to do next week at the debate. here's a view of the past and the future. >> i had a different reaction to that first debate than a lot of people did. i mean, i saw -- i thought, wow. here's old moderate mitt. where you been, boy? i missed you all these last two years. now, the problem with this deal is the deal was made by severe conservative mitt....
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. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>> tonight with 28 days until the presidential election, the head of the evolution-denying party got this question about evolution. >> that 47% comment that you made that's caused you a lot of grieve as you know. there's been a change in wrur position. you were initially saying when that tape came out that you weren't exactly elegantly stating your position. later and more recently you said you were completely wrong. i'm curious, governor, how did that evolution in your thinking go on from the initial reaction once that tape came out to what you said the other day that you were completely wrong? >> well, what i'm saying is that -- the words that came out were not what i
. >> over a windfall of new polling. >> we're seeing polls all over the place. >> mitt romney got a debate bounce. >> we cannot turn back now. >> the narrative about who's up, who's down in this race for the white house. >> it's a race that is anything but settled. >> there will be plenty of ups and downs over the next 28 days. >> just 28 days until election. >> are you in? are you ready for this? 28 days. are you with me? >>>...
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the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the candidate's chances at 538, your now cast factors in not just polling but also economic data and other measures that you think give you a percentage chance that one of the two candidates will win the election. what's the percentage chance you have for each of the candidates and has that changed less than the national polls changed? >> the percentage is a 70/30 advantage for obama. which, by the way, if you go to vegas or offshore versions of vegas, you can bet at about those odds. obama is a 70% favorite. but my site had obama as an 85% favorite before the debate. means r
the gallup poll, for instance, has romney doing five points better. other polls have that a little smaller. so it seems like obama would even today win an election if everyone registered to vote turned out or certainly all adults. but based on the republican enthusiasm advantage and some democrats, i think, feeling a little disupon dent after the pr performance in denver last week, that alone might be enough to push romney over the top. >> the special way that you sort of distill the...
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but first, here is the gallop daily tracking poll, mitt romney closing the gap on president obama, who still leads by three points, 49-46, and taking to the tv air waves, the romney camp claiming the president's plan will increase taxes, here is the new ad. >> president obama continues to distort mitt romney's economic plan. the latest? not telling the truth about mitt romney's plan, it doesn't add up, abc news, mostly fiction, even the obama campaign admitted it was not true. >> okay, stipulatelated. it won't be near 5 trillion. >> obama's plan? $4,000 more in taxes on the middle class, we can't afford four more years. >>> from the obama campaign, an ad targeting mitt romney's plan, and calling it just an act. >> why was romney so dishonest about his plan? the massive new tax cut for millionaires means higher tax cuts for the middle class, and aarp says romney's plan undermines medicare by turning it into a voucher. we have real challenges to meet. children to educate, a class to rebuild. >> one more note within this past hour, the president left on a two-day campaign swing through ca
but first, here is the gallop daily tracking poll, mitt romney closing the gap on president obama, who still leads by three points, 49-46, and taking to the tv air waves, the romney camp claiming the president's plan will increase taxes, here is the new ad. >> president obama continues to distort mitt romney's economic plan. the latest? not telling the truth about mitt romney's plan, it doesn't add up, abc news, mostly fiction, even the obama campaign admitted it was not true. >>...
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and a new real clear politics average of all the national polls has romney edging ahead of president obama for the first time this year. south of cleveland last night, meanwhile, an estimated 12,000 people showed up in the cold to support romney who was introduced by fired up governor of new jersey, mr. chris christie. >> a few weeks ago, i watched the democratic national convention, i did it as a sacrifice and service to my country. i sat on my couch in my living room, i made my 12-year-old son patrick bring me a big bottle of water because when i hear that much b.s., i get lightheaded. i want to help the president i'm sure because he loves me. i'm sure he's out there listening. mr. president, you have lived inside 1600 pennsylvania avenue for four years. if you can't change washington from inside the white house, then let's get you the plane ticket back to chicago you've earned. >> romney who is holding three more campaign events today in ohio shows you you how much they think they need to do in that state, then supplied the crowd with a neutrallying cry. >> i've been watching some
and a new real clear politics average of all the national polls has romney edging ahead of president obama for the first time this year. south of cleveland last night, meanwhile, an estimated 12,000 people showed up in the cold to support romney who was introduced by fired up governor of new jersey, mr. chris christie. >> a few weeks ago, i watched the democratic national convention, i did it as a sacrifice and service to my country. i sat on my couch in my living room, i made my...
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has effectively closed the gender gap according to one poll. romney stands even with the president among female voters in the latest pugh survey. should romney end up getting more of the female vote than the president does in the general, he'd be the first republican to do that in 24 years. want to sound smart today, tell your friends the last republican presidential candidate to win the female vote, george h.w. bush. they favored him over michael dukakis by a single percentage point that day. the number of female voters xeeted every male voter in every presidential election since 1964. >>> all right, let's huddle up around the water cooler to take a crack at the conspiracy theories that were around after the release of the jobs report. >> folks, this .3% drop in the unemployment rate seems just a little too barely better to be true. >> maybe it's a coincidence. the month before the election we have a number that comes out .1 below when the president took office. >> i'm going to go with jack welch on this one. >> how convenient that the rate dr
has effectively closed the gender gap according to one poll. romney stands even with the president among female voters in the latest pugh survey. should romney end up getting more of the female vote than the president does in the general, he'd be the first republican to do that in 24 years. want to sound smart today, tell your friends the last republican presidential candidate to win the female vote, george h.w. bush. they favored him over michael dukakis by a single percentage point that day....
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we're coming out with new polls right afterwards. and what they show is that there has been some movement in mitt romney's direction since his debate performance last week. but not a whole lot. so in the state of virginia which actually had their biggest movement, president obama last week was up two points, 48% to 46%. now it's mitt romney at 1%, 48%, 47% and this is all in the margin of error. in florida, it's president obama went in to the debate last week up 1% in the state. he remains up 1%, 48% to 47%. and in ohio, the last week right before the debate, he was leading mitt romney by eight points. now it's six points, 51% to 45%. >> so we're seeing some of the shift after the debate, although it's not a significant shift in numbers. but how is the white house reacting to the new numbers coming out? >> i think they're pretty comforted by them. they see that mitt romney was able to make some marginal gains but nothing that substantially transformed the race. now, of course, they need a good debate performance from joe biden tonigh
we're coming out with new polls right afterwards. and what they show is that there has been some movement in mitt romney's direction since his debate performance last week. but not a whole lot. so in the state of virginia which actually had their biggest movement, president obama last week was up two points, 48% to 46%. now it's mitt romney at 1%, 48%, 47% and this is all in the margin of error. in florida, it's president obama went in to the debate last week up 1% in the state. he remains up...
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the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and if that uniformly filtering down to the battleground states, romney would still trail in iowa, ohio and alabama and obama would have a slight advantage ♪ electoral college. >> continuing our theme of what really matters, let's talk about the polls. obviously, polls don't vote. but do they sway the electorate? do they see one person as leading or gaining and some people decide to change their vote? is there some science on do polls actually shape the election itself? >> i don't think there's very much evidence that polls shift the election. if they did, i think we would see, you know,
the initial wave of state polls showed romney doing pretty well in the battleground states. in the rasmussen polls over the last two days, obama is doing better. that's consistent with the trend i talked about earlier. the question is whether obama gets an outsized bounce in states like ohio, nevada and iowa where he was doing better than nationally. if you look at all of the national polls conducted since the first debate, what you see is about a three point gain for romney. if that holds and...
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a reuters poll found the president leads romney 59% to 39%. others say younger voters may be the target when president obama makes his second appearance to face political jokes from jon stewart on "the daily show." and bruce springsteen will sing at an obama rally in ohio, and bill clinton will be speaking at the event. >>> supporters of big bird who want to save "sesame street" are planning a million muppets march in washington only three days before the election. and now from the non-scientific file of predicting political winners, reuters reports that based on past elections, if ohio state wins its football game against illinois november 3rd, incumbents including the president could get a small boost on election day, but the opposite effected could happen from sharp attacks reducing votes in states like florida. huh? >>> and saturday night live took on the vice presidential debate making fun of joe biden's frequent laughs and interruptions and paul ryan's complaint about it. >> i know you're under a lot of duress to make up from lost ground
a reuters poll found the president leads romney 59% to 39%. others say younger voters may be the target when president obama makes his second appearance to face political jokes from jon stewart on "the daily show." and bruce springsteen will sing at an obama rally in ohio, and bill clinton will be speaking at the event. >>> supporters of big bird who want to save "sesame street" are planning a million muppets march in washington only three days before the election....
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can mitt romney move the polls in a place like ohio? where before the debate, our nbc news maris poll showed the president up eight in a state where president obama's message seems to be the jobs numbers. that's working. improving car sales. car sales up. stock market up. does he have to win, for example, ohio? mitt romney, to win the presidency. can he move the number there is? >> well, i think on an overall question, i would agree with all of you that this is going to be an incredibly close election. i thought that the polls were closing before the debate. the debate certainly helped close them even further. i think you are going to see this come down to a ground game, the traditional door to door person by person ground game. as far as whether you can win without ohio, you know, i think you can. i think obviously doing well out west and colorado and nevada. >> but extremely, extremely difficult, yes? >> well, certainly. of course, it makes it tougher but i think if you look at the polls as of late in ohio they tighten. i don't think
can mitt romney move the polls in a place like ohio? where before the debate, our nbc news maris poll showed the president up eight in a state where president obama's message seems to be the jobs numbers. that's working. improving car sales. car sales up. stock market up. does he have to win, for example, ohio? mitt romney, to win the presidency. can he move the number there is? >> well, i think on an overall question, i would agree with all of you that this is going to be an incredibly...
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romney seems to have searched national polls than battlegrounds. i think this something i want to keep tracking. i think it's -- it's a little piece of evidence right now and it's been something that you know the president is stronger in battle grounds than any other states. how much of romney's bump is in the other 41 states, if you will? and in the national polls and where in the battlegrounds maybe everything was fought to a draw? that's something that has to be a keconcern to the romney team. >> chris cillizza, when we looked at the narrowing in the battleground polls, especially virginia, we're seeing an impact there also in a very important senate race because there had been an advantage for tim kaine over george alan there, as the president at the top of the ticket was pulling ahead but now that it's narrowed they are dead even. >> yeah. i think virginia's the one to look at in terms of down ballot effect, because we expect that race between tim kaine and george alan to be so close. i say if barack obama win virginia i'd been hard pressed to
romney seems to have searched national polls than battlegrounds. i think this something i want to keep tracking. i think it's -- it's a little piece of evidence right now and it's been something that you know the president is stronger in battle grounds than any other states. how much of romney's bump is in the other 41 states, if you will? and in the national polls and where in the battlegrounds maybe everything was fought to a draw? that's something that has to be a keconcern to the romney...
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mitt romney and barack obama really neck and neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. and you can see that the -- as we've gotten a little bit further away from that first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects of it have been a little less than we might have thought before. there's no question mitt romney helped himself a little bit in terms of his likability, in terms of conservative and republican enthusiasm. the race in terms of the national numbers with back to being, as you said, joe, a jump ball. i keep looking at that ohio number at the end. when you think about the closer we get to election day, the more we have to think about what are the paths to 270 electoral votes. that ohio number at five is still a big problem for romney if he's going to try to get all the way there. >> richard wolffe, the bottom line is if mitt romney cannot win ohio, and at this point you've got early voting going in, absentee voting going in, that's hap
mitt romney and barack obama really neck and neck whether you're looking at the national polls or the battleground state polls. >> yeah, that's right. there's no question about it, joe. and you can see that the -- as we've gotten a little bit further away from that first debate where president obama performed so poorly, you can see that the lingering effects of it have been a little less than we might have thought before. there's no question mitt romney helped himself a little bit in...
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according to "new york times"/cbs news poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. tight across the country. last month the president up one point in that state n virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. in wisconsin, the candidates also within the margin of error after the president lost the point from last month and mitt romney gained two. again this is all within the margin of error. a day after mitt romney, meanwhile, told the des moines register he would not pursue any abortion related legislation as president, mr. romney looked to clarify that position while campaigning in ohio. there he told reporters he would take action from the white house to reduce the number of abortions in the country. >> i think i said time and again i'm a pro-life candidate. i'll be a pro-life president. the actions i'll take immediately are to remove funding for planned parenthood. >> remove funding for planned parenthood. he said he would ban taxpayer funding for groups that perform abortions overseas. in an interview with abc news, president obama yesterday
according to "new york times"/cbs news poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. tight across the country. last month the president up one point in that state n virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. in wisconsin, the candidates also within the margin of error after the president lost the point from last month and mitt romney gained two. again this is all within the margin of error. a day after mitt romney, meanwhile, told the des moines...
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the poll shows among likely voters, romney holds the four-point edge over obama. 49-45. and this video just in. the president arriving back at the hotel in san francisco. he'll spend the night there and head to columbus, ohio, in the morning before heading back home to washington, d.c. we have complete coverage of the president's bay area visit on our website. nbcbayarea.com including insider details on the president's private events. >>> gas prices hit another record high in california today. but relief could be in sight. analysts say wholesale prices plunged today, which means you should see lower prices at the pump later this week. on sunday, governor brown ordered an early changeover to the winter blend gas. analysts say that in addition to that drop in wholesale price means the spike that we've seen in the last few days will be eliminated by next week. >> was it a random crime or something more sinister? a retired kibd garden teacher found stabbed to death inside her own home. a quiet home she and her family have lived in for more than 30 years. cheryl hurd joins us
the poll shows among likely voters, romney holds the four-point edge over obama. 49-45. and this video just in. the president arriving back at the hotel in san francisco. he'll spend the night there and head to columbus, ohio, in the morning before heading back home to washington, d.c. we have complete coverage of the president's bay area visit on our website. nbcbayarea.com including insider details on the president's private events. >>> gas prices hit another record high in...
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the same poll shows romney scoring higher marks. the two men now essentially tied on that question of likability. >>> a new poll of likely voters from the "washington post" and abc news puts the race within the margin of error with president obama at 49%, and mitt romney at 46%. today the pressure is on the president to rebound in tomorrow night's contest at new york's hofstra university on long island. hoping to slow the momentum of mitt romney. the "wall street journal" says some obama aides think obama is rusty with the format from going nine months without a town hall style debate. >>> with absentee or early in-person voting underway in 43 states in this country, both campaigns out with new ads. team romney says the economy is no laughing matter. pointing back to the vice presidential debate of last week. >> we can't keep spending and borrowing like this we can't keep spending money we don't have. they come in and inherit a tough situation? absolutely. but we're going in the wrong direction. look at where we are. the economy is
the same poll shows romney scoring higher marks. the two men now essentially tied on that question of likability. >>> a new poll of likely voters from the "washington post" and abc news puts the race within the margin of error with president obama at 49%, and mitt romney at 46%. today the pressure is on the president to rebound in tomorrow night's contest at new york's hofstra university on long island. hoping to slow the momentum of mitt romney. the "wall street...
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the latest polling shows mixed results. the pew poll has romney up by four. gallup's daily tracking has the president up by five. what does that mean? >> yeah, first of all, you know, you always take one poll in isolation or even two can be problematic. the best thing always on these is to look there's a few sites that do polling averages, real clear politics, "huffington post," they average all the different polls and put them together. if you want to look at these two right now, they might kind of both be true and it's because of this. the gallup one measures seven days. it's still got a number of predebate days there when oen was ahead. it's got the immediate post debate when romney seems to have pulled even or taken the lead in the two or three days immediately after. >> immediately after. >> what gallup also showed apparently in the last day that's included in the seven days, there was ho movement back towards obama. there was an end to the movement toward romney. so that's why he went from three ahead in the seven-day track yesterday to five ahead in th
the latest polling shows mixed results. the pew poll has romney up by four. gallup's daily tracking has the president up by five. what does that mean? >> yeah, first of all, you know, you always take one poll in isolation or even two can be problematic. the best thing always on these is to look there's a few sites that do polling averages, real clear politics, "huffington post," they average all the different polls and put them together. if you want to look at these two right...
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epic-mra poll, obama, 48%, romney, 45%. we'll be right back. boy, they are close. >>> we're back. throughout this election year we've watched president obama and governor romney's campaigns carefully craft a message on who exactly their candidate is and what makes them tick. well, a pbs frontline documentary airing tonight is breaking through the talking points to find out what made these two presidential candidates the men they are in the words of their friends, family, enemies, and the reporters who have covered them. let's watch. >> he is a pragmatic business person. he's a guy who likes to take apart a problem and figure out how to get it fixed. >> barack obama is a fascinating mixture of boldness and caution but then once he makes a decision, it's usually the bold one. >> mitt romney has been accused of flip-flopping, but on mormonism he will never flip-flop. >> and yet in politics he has often tried to keep that part of him behind the curtain. >> the backlash against his presidency must be mystifying to him because he
epic-mra poll, obama, 48%, romney, 45%. we'll be right back. boy, they are close. >>> we're back. throughout this election year we've watched president obama and governor romney's campaigns carefully craft a message on who exactly their candidate is and what makes them tick. well, a pbs frontline documentary airing tonight is breaking through the talking points to find out what made these two presidential candidates the men they are in the words of their friends, family, enemies, and...
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to a "new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. he's now up 51%-46%. and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the numbers back in july. >> and mark halperin, that may be the big takeaway from this poll. the race is getting much closer. nobody can predict what's going to happen. if you look at a big friend, thoug trend, you've got to look at a lot of americans in these swing states are looking at the economy saying things are getting better. >> it's clearly a huge factor and yet, obviously, the debate from denver is also a huge factor. i think, you know, we look a lot at the margin of error, and these numbers aren't shifting all that much. what's key is in a lot of the states the president is below 50. that
to a "new york times"/cbs poll, mitt romney leads the president by one point in colorado. last month the president was up one point in that state. in virginia, president obama's lead from last month grew slightly. he's now up 51%-46%. and in wisconsin, the candidates are within the margin of error after the president lost a point from last month and mitt romney gained two. in all three battleground states, voters by double digits believe the economy is getting better compared to the...